Sunday, December 25, 2016
Saturday, December 3, 2016
1)Too much historical FA. HFA
2)Balance Approach- Future and Valuation. BL
3)Simplified Future. SF
There is one group of people who like Historical Fundamental Analysis. Talking about net asset per share, PE ratio, dividend, cash, etc. Mostly about historical.
If a company PE ratio is super low, 4 times, a good buy. But what if the profit drop next two years? You may lose money.
Balance. These group of people talk more about future, eg icon sifu. Most of the info he shared are about future, the project, the expansion, the new orders, etc. He shared details things of future. He uses and also shares past records eg profit margin, but is for the purpose of analysing the trend, future and worth. Focus mainly on future. But he doesn't stop there, he also values the stock, whether the current price are expensive. Example no point buying a stock if the profit will grow 100% but the share price is already up 300%. That's why he also touches on PE ratio etc.
Some just said the stock is good if the profit is growing. This is too simplified. That is why you can see many stocks 3 months later announce profit up 90% but the share price hardly move within this 3 months, because the stock price already up or PE ratio already very high.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
PERSTIMA, TGUAN, ASIAFILE, TAANN, SOP, UMCCA
HEVEA, SUPERLN, PENTA, IQGROUP, ECOWORLD, RCECAP, POHUAT, JAKS, MFCB, JTIASA, FREIGHT, PRLEXUS
JOHOTIN, MBSB, OPENSYS, MMSV, SOLUTN, RGB, HOMERIZ, SENDAI, WASEONG, OCK, WCE, WILLOW
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 270% !!
MFCB have this USD500m (RM2bn) Don Sahong hydropower project which has been on track, reaching 10% completion as of Aug 2016. The deadline to complete the project is31 Dec 2019 while commercial operation is scheduled to take place in early 2020.
1-fold jump in profit RM51.8 million + RM51.8mil = RM103.6 million.
3-fold jump in profit = RM51.8 X 3 + RM51.8mil = RM207.2 million
Warrant Price now RM0.60.
= 140% upside.
The Laos hydropower project could fetch as much as RM4.43/share. Upon the full commercial operation of the hydropower plant, we forecast that the Don Sahong Hydropower could contribute as much as RM4.43/share (WACC: 7%) based on our DCF valuation. As of now, we apply a higher WACC of 10% coupled with a 30% discount for the risk exposure during the construction period, which yields a valuation of RM2.26/share. All-in, our SOP-based TP is revised upwards from RM2.29 to RM3.16.
Sunday, September 18, 2016
I'm not saying that now is the time to buy export counters. Sharing of info only. By the way, I don't gain by sharing info, and always receive criticism. People will leave some nasty comments in my blog and facebook. Is like eating nice durian, hope others can enjoy. I'll be glad if my sharing can help others. If you think my method is wrong or need to be improved, why don't you guide me. I'm also still learning.
If you buy USD, USD up 1%, you make 1%. Some of the stocks below if USD up 1%, their profit could up 1.5% or some companies 2%. So, if you want to benefit from USD or hedge against USD, you may consider stocks that can gain at least 1% or more from 1% up of USD.
It is also better to look for companies with good prospect, high dividend yield, high target price or fair value. In case the USD does not go up, at least the stock also can go up due to higher profit or receive good dividend.
The list below are 12 months ago, but most are still valid. Do your own research. Their share prices are the latest and target prices are quite recent. The target price I roughly average it if got few brokers. If I didn't indicate any target price means unable to find.
Some are not export stocks, but are benefited from strong USD or weakening of Ringgit (example strong Yen or Euro). They may have operations in overseas.
I also list those have negative impact from weakening of Ringgit.
Once again, sharing of information only, I may have typo or the info may be outdated. Check with your finacial planner.
The target price or fair value are BEFORE the straightening of USD to near RM4.20 now (RM4.15??). If USD up, the Target Price later will also be up.
I also list down those are negatively impacted by weakening of Ringgit. Don't mix up. DO NOT MIX UP.
Top Glove RM4.69, TP RM5.50
Homeritz share price RM0.885, Target Price RM1.09
Vitrox RM3.83, TP RM3.70
Last year Maybank said 1% USD up, Vitrox bottomline up 2%.
Because some of the operations are in overseas.
GenM RM4.37, TP RM4.50
Daibochi RM2.25, TP RM2.14
Tomypak RM1.66, TP RM2.00
Thong Guan TGUAN RM4.28, TP RM4.88
MISC RM7.53, RM8.10
You see this CSCENIC, there was one quarter it said although USD is strong, their profit was not good because undercut by Europe competitors. I think Euro also dropped against the USD, not sure. So you must determine whether is USD strong, or Ringgit weak.
Last year Kenanga said 1% fluatuation in USD, UMW's bottomline could be affected by 3%. Tan Chong is 6%.
Because many borrowings are in USD. Fuel cost also. Unless they have hedged it.
You guys know AirAsia much better than me.
Many telcos have borrowings in USD.
Because most content costs are in USD but sales are in Ringgit.
SUNWAY- USD debt
IJM- USD debt
GAB GUINNESS HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BERHAD
Sunday, September 11, 2016
With potential seen in the market for sensor-based products, we zoom in on IQ Group Holdings (IQ Group), a motion sensor lighting producer listed in Malaysia.
IQ Group, founded in Penang, Malaysia in 1989, is principally engaged in the design and manufacturing of sensor products which includes passive infrared detectors, motion sensor light controllers, wireless video communication devices, door bells and home security system products.
Looking at IQ Group’s past operating performance, things were not all smooth for the firm. The company fell into losses for three consecutive financial years from FY09 to FY11 before making a turnaround in FY12.
While there was a dip in earnings in FY13, we note that it was due to foreign exchange loss of RM1.6 million and the absence of disposal gains amounting to RM4.2 million recorded in FY12. Net margin has also been improving and held steady at 10.8 percent and 10.9 percent for FY15 and FY16 respectively.
In terms of financial strength, IQ Group boasts a cash-rich balance sheet that is free of debts. As of 30 June 2016, the firm’s net cash stood at approximately RM56.8 million (including short-term deposits), which translates to roughly 30.8 percent of its market capitalisation of RM184.4 million as of 5 September.
On the cash flows front, the group has posted positive operating cash flows in all of the past years except for FY11. We like that the company’s free cash flows have also been positive in the latest four financial years from FY13 to FY16. The strong cash generating capabilities have, in turn, allowed IQ Group to build up its cash reserves.
In the past few years, IQ Group has developed its own intelligent lighting solutions, which was launched in early 2015 under the Lumiqs brand. Lumiqs LED products are equipped with wireless transceivers and can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to movement of people in an area, allowing up to 90 percent energy saving.
Based on a share price of RM2.09, the company’s shares are trading at a trailing twelve months price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.7 times, which seems reasonable given the company’s performance and growth prospect. In contrast, Taiwan-listed peer Everspring Industry Co (Everspring) trades at a P/E of 25.3 times. While Everspring’s market capitalisation is about three times that of IQ Group, we note that the former’s latest full year net profit is only about 10 percent higher.
Overall, we foresee the demand for the IQ group’s products to rise as people become more conscious about the environment and saving energy. Additionally, with the increasing popularity of the IoT, the company is in a good position to capitalise on the trend using its innovation and expertise.
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
= They have spent the money.
= Good product that can save 90% of energy?
= I think there is a delay. News in September 2016 said starting 2015.
= Did we see improvement in Financial Result for year ended March 2016? No. Result was flat. But don’t know how much is from Lumiqs and how much is from forex.
= Good prospect from new product.
= New markets
= Good prospect for 5 years
My view is that this IQ Group have growth. How much, I don’t know. Although past few years, their financial is not so consistent, but the PE ratio is not expensive and with dividend yield of 4.7%, it provides some support. With net cash of RM0.54, it can be used to support dividend payment or for new products/markets development without calling cash injection.
IQGroup fair value and target price? I will just play by ear, assess the new developments.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Affin Hwang Capital
KESM was RM6.95
In the automotive sweet spot
KESM recorded a strong 2012-15 EPS CAGR of 32%. We believe the solid growth is sustainable, underpinned by focused growth in the automotive business and margin expansion from improved product mix and growth in the high-margin testing business. Hence, despite the 34% stock price outperformance ytd, we think valuations remain attractive and expect a continued PE re-rating.
Initiate coverage with a BUY and target price of RM11 based on 12x our calendarised 2017E EPS, for upside potential of 58%. Set to benefit from automotive structural growth story KESM provides a good proxy to the stable and growing automotive semiconductor segment, in our view. With strong growing demand for electronics for vehicles, from safety to infotainment and autonomous vehicles, we believe KESM is in the right segment to benefit from an automotive structural growth story.
2015-17E EPS CAGR of 35%
We forecast KESM to achieve a 3-year EPS CAGR of 35% on the expansion of its testing business in the automotive segment. Its recent investments, in our view, should gradually bear fruit in the coming years and drive revenue growth. We look for EBITDA margins to rise from 31.9% in 2015.
Further re-rating expected
We see several re-rating catalysts for the stock, including a strong earnings
upcycle and PE expansion, as awareness on the stock remains low and
institutional holdings are limited.
Initiate coverage with BUY and RM11 target price
We initiate coverage on KESM with a BUY rating, on: 1) solid growth prospects in the automotive space, a strong working relationship with customers and expansion into the testing business, which we expect to drive a 3-year-forward EPS CAGR of 35%; 2) a hands-on and forwardlooking management team; and 3) although valuation comparables are limited as competitors are mainly integrated device manufacturers (IDM), closest peer Trio-Tech (TRT US) trades at a 14x 2016E EPS. KESM also trades on average at a 56% discount to automotive-related IDMs’ 2016E PE of 20.7x. Thus, at a 2017E PER of 8x, valuation looks attractive. Our target price of RM11 (12x calendarised 2017E EPS) offers 58% upside.
KESM was RM6.69
Despite weaker performance in the global semiconductor industry, KESM’s earnings have continued to grow at a rapid clip. Between FY12 and FY15, net profits had grown by a stellar CAGR of 60%. KESM is now poised for the next growth stage following the recent acquisition of the remaining 34.6% equity interest in KESM Test as well as the successful development of proprietary process controls for Test-During-Burn-In (TDBI); both developments will enable the group to establish a stronger foothold in the resilient & high margin automotive segment. We project earnings to grow by 75.2%/13.6% in FY16E/FY17E, and recommend a TRADING BUY on KESM with a fair value of RM7.90 based on a targeted FY17E PER of 10x.
In a sweet spot.
KESM began as a company involved in burn-in services for the semiconductor industry. The company’s foray into the Testing Services industry over the years has begun to bear fruit and KESM now enjoys a market-leading position as the largest independent “Burn-in & Test” service company in Malaysia. Recently, KESM completed the acquisition of the remaining 34.6% equity interest in KESM Test (in May 2015) for RM35.0m. The automotive segment now accounts for 70-80% of revenue (UNISEM and MPI derive c.17% and 23% of revenue from the Automotive industry, respectively), with the balance coming from the commercial segment.
Betting big on the automotive segment.
KESM is well positioned to benefit from two salient trends; (1) rising global automotive sales (expected to exceed 100m units in 2017 from 91m in 2015), and (2) increased electronic chips content in cars. The value content of electronics in a car is expected to grow from USD284 to USD330 from 2014 to 2019. The automotive segment represents an area of high growth potential and has enabled the Group to diversify into a segment that offers longer product life cycle and higher margin.
FY16/17E Net Profit to grow 75.2%/13.6%. KESM’s EBIT margins have expanded from just 5.4% in FY12 to 9.5% in FY15, while its earnings have also increased at a 3-year CAGR of 60.0%. In addition to the above growth drivers, we see the trend of increasing chip content cascading down from luxury cars to mid/low range cars, anchoring top line growth for KESM’s Burn-in and Testing services over the medium-to-long term. At the same time, higher margins from the automotive IC segment as well as cost efficiency from KESM’s proprietary Test during Burn-in (TDBI) should pave the way for a 273bps/23bps improvement in EBIT margins for FY16E/FY17E.
Strong balance sheet with RM63.6m cash pile.
Despite the expansion drive these past few years, KESM was still able to maintain a net cash position (RM1.48/share). Looking ahead, we projected CAPEX to come in at RM50m/RM70m for FY16/FY17. While dividends are expected to maintain
at a modest 15% pay-out ratio (dividend yield of 1.9%), we see scope for a bonus issue, given the high retained earnings of RM219.5m and very low share capital of just RM43.0m.
Trading Buy with Fair Value of RM7.90.
We believe this under-researched
gem is due for a rerating given its unique position within a resilient segment, strong earnings delivery and cash rich position. KESM is currently trading at a mere 8.5x FY17E PER (6.6x ex-cash), compared to listed peers, which trade at an average Fwd. PER of 12.8x. We expect the valuation gap to narrow, and have derived a FV of RM7.90 based on 10x PER FY17E (+18.1% from yesterday’s close). The RM7.90 Fair Value is premised upon a 20% discount to the valuation of industry peers in view of its smaller market capitalization and tighter shares liquidity.
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Friday, August 12, 2016
World Top Seven Investors. If you read their track records, excellent job done. I wish my return can come close to these seven top investors in the world. Still have a lot to learn from them.
Warren Buffett. He made more than USD60 million for the past 50 years. I think that excludes billions that he has donated away. Great investor for so many years.
Although we always hear of Warren Buffet, but he lose to Carl Icahn. He is an American business magnate, investor, activist shareholder, and philanthropist.From 1968 through 2011, Icahn grew his original $100,000 investment in his firm at a 31% annual rate, while Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had "only" a 20% annual growth rate.
But both of them still lose to George Soros in ONE SINGLE DAY CATEGORY. His September 16, 1992 transaction, when he made a single-day gain of $1 billion dollars.
But Soros loses to a Malaysian guy by the name of Mr Dummy who made 107%profit in 2015. Soros only increased from USD23 billion to USD24.9 billion, a mere8%.
But Mr Dummy loses to moneySifu who made more than 20% in 2016, while Mr Dummy is making 8.5% lose in 2016.MoneySifu is a Malaysian.
But moneySifu loses to a pretty lady called Michelle (not her actual name), a branch manager who I met in an optical shop last weekend. She is a Malaysian too. She made 87% within two months from 1000 units of JHM stock worth RM720 and sold RM1350. Her brother in law suggested her to buy JHM.
Who is the best? Michelle's brother in law? Her brother in law is only driving an old local car. He is a Malaysian.
The list can go on and on. Therefore:
A)Don't compare and be sad/envy. Compare and see how we can be improved, should be happy. Learn from them.
B)Don’t WORSHIP great investors.
1) Those who made high percentage, maybe invested smaller amount than you, just like Michelle.
2)High percentage may be just selected years. Look at Mr Dummy 107% gain in 2015, negative 8% this year while many are making good profit in 2016. Great investor, but maybe he has no time to look for new stocks or review his stocks and hold on too tight. Have learned a lot from him.
3)For those who made high percentage % and invested a lot, they still lose to Warren Buffett, because Buffett made more money than anyone. But Warren Buffet lose to Carl Icahn. And the winner is Michelle’s brother in law who is driving an old local car. The circle keeps continue until no end.
4)Some make 60% from their spare cash, but you make 17% from your total portfolio. You are better.
5)Some invested almost all their net-worth and made 16%, whereas yours only part of your net-worth and made 17%.
6)Some are from rich family, the first trade is already RM20,000. Whereas some started with RM800.
Great investors have their own weaknesses. Learn from them, but don’t worship them.
When am I rank? The world has 7.4 billion people now, and I’m rank 3,700,000,001. Slightly above average.
Stock Market is a good place to make money. Happy Investing.
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
Thursday, July 21, 2016
JHM plan to expand their automotive LED business into Europe and Japan soon.
JHM Consolidation Bhd plans for its new aerospace business segment to be a major contributor to the group’s revenue by the second half of 2017.
Aerospace business deals usually cover a 30-year.
On its automotive LED segment, the group still had orders with an estimated market value of over RM90mil to deliver for the second half of 2016, which is about 20% more than what was delivered in the same period a year ago.
JHM targeting to go to the Main Market by 2018.
Saturday, July 9, 2016
Friday, July 1, 2016
It said on Tuesday OCK is an experienced network service provider poised to grow tower assets in frontier markets.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
EPF 1,100 8,900
Tax 860 8,040
Kindergarten 790 7,250
Day care 430 6,820
Child Activities 200 6,620
Car instalment 650 5,970
Car Maintenance 400 5,570
Petrol 420 5,150
Parent 1,000 4,150
Insurance 1,050 3,100
House 1,300 1,800
Market/Grocery 450 1,350
Phone 210 1,140
Electricity/ water 150 990
Toll + parking 150 840
Management Fee 200 640
Office Lunch 440 200
Weekend 200 0
Below are expenses simulations of an average middle class family.
Salary husband $6000 and wife $4000, total $10,000.
DEDUCTIONS AND EXPENSES:
EPF $1,100 and Tax $870.
Two kids. Youngest kindergarten plus day care, morning until 6.45pm. Nobody take care of him after morning class. $240 is morning class and $550 is day care plus lunch plus tea time. Slightly expensive because only one centre at the location that closes at 7pm+. Sometimes office a lot of things to do and late in picking up child.
Unable to cut this expenses.
Primary day care plus tuition $430
Eldest child in primary school afternoon. Morning nobody take care, so send to day care + tuition at 7.30am, $380. Afternoon the centre will send the child to school. $50 is to cater food from school canteen, eldest child still young, easier and no need to bring pocket money. About the same expenses if buy from canteen.
Unable to cut this expenses.
Child Activities $200
$100 per child, one swimming, one badminton. See most parents also give their children learning some extra activities. Hopefully one day they will be like Lee CW or Misbun Sidek. Shall cut this expenses?
Car Instalment $650
Instalment for most common local car, Myvi, for husband. Wife 10 years old Kelisa. If finish paying Myvi, then is time for wife to change car. Not really want to change, but if too old the repair cost also will be killing the owner and not reliable. Use public transport? Need cars to rush to pick-up children. Sometimes last minute husband need to stay late, sometimes wife, so need two cars.
Car Maintenance $400
Husband every 3 to 6 months normal service in Perodua service centre, every few visits is the centre say major service. $300 to $600 per service. But sometimes change tyre, brake, absorber, brake discs skimming, and many other things plus labour cost. Sometimes the bill can be close to $1000. Average per months is $100 for service and $100 for general maintenance and repairs.
Wife normal service is cheaper but repairs are worse, sometimes engine oil leaking, oil seals, overhaul, rims, and many other things plus labour cost. Always got a lot of things to repair. Wife monthly average also same $200.
Major repairs will be at other workshops. No matter which car, when we ask “ don’t change or don’t repair can or not?”, the replies are always the same, “can, but dangerous, especially if you on highway”.
No buying of unnecessary accessories.
Husband $260, wife $160
Parents Monthly $1,000
Husband two parents and wife two, total four. Average giving about $250 per parent. Can reduce the amount?
Husband $450. Wife $350. Each child $125.
Not really can cut because husband got high blood pressure and any new insurance will have extra charges. If don’t buy full coverage now, any sickness will not be covered if detected before buying. Government hospital service is not good, example asking us to do kidney dialysis 3 times a week at private centre, and visit doctor have to wait weeks or months to book an appointment.
No education plan.
Shall cut this?
House Instalment $1300
Purchase cost $250,000 basic condo with only swimming pool. 1,000 square feet. Now also hard to get at this price.
Market and Grocery $450
About $110 per week. Market for cooking dinner Monday to Friday, fruits, grocery buying toilet paper, cooking oil, canned food, sauce, broom, detergent, kitchenware, gas, milk powder, biscuit, eggs, milk, cereal, bread, washing powder, and normally the bills from hypermarket are very long and expensive.
$75 x 2 persons = $150.
3.5 years change phone $1,260. Per month is $30. X2 = $60
Utilities Bills $150
Electricity and water bills are standard. Very seldom watch TV or use laptop. No Astro, computer and Wi-Fi. No thermos flask/microwave, 1 room aircon 25 Celsius 10pm until 3pm, living hall once a while one hour aircon if very hot, 2 water heaters lowest temperature without pump, one washing machine and fridge. Most are florescent light (long lasting) and some energy savings lights (not long lasting always spoiled).
Toll and Parking $150
Wife office parking $120 per month.
Condo management Fee $200
This is expensive. Previously was $120. Many tenants didn’t pay, and only two blocks to share the costs. Unable to do anything, unless move to a new place. Now property prices are very expenses.
Office Lunch $440
22 days X $10 per day X 2 persons. Normal cheap meal is $6 to $7. One week one or two times eat Nasi Lemak for breakfast X 2 persons. One or two times a week lunch with drinks. Sometimes colleagues say enjoy a bit, sometimes got birthdays, eat $15 to $20 and sometimes buy small cakes. Sometimes buy for tea time. Most of the extras are ‘sometimes” only. Average is $10 per day.
9 days $6 = $54
9 days $7 = $63
2 days $15 = $30
2 days $20 = $40
Total 22 days working days in a month, $187
5 days per month Nasi Lemak breakfast $8
6 days per month lunch with drink $8
4 days per month tea time $8
2 days per month drive out parking $6
$3 for GST and service tax in some restaurants.
Many activities during weekend, so eat Nasi Campur / Mixed Rice outside. Husband and wife $5 x 2 persons = $10. Kids $2.50 X 2 persons = $5. Total food per day $15. 4 persons if eat 3 bowls of noodles $7 X 3 already $21 and more than $15 budget.
4 persons, each person $2.50 for other expenses per day during weekends, total $10. This is to cover the food budget >$15 per day, pay parking, buy some drinks if finished the tumblers/bottles from house, kids sometimes want ice-cream, buy $5 of fruit, rojak, roti canai, or tart when visiting parents.
($15 + $10) X 8 weekend (days) = $200.
The above are just the fixed expenses, and excluding the followings:
No Astro and no Wi-Fi.
Parents medical expenses, they use their own money plus pocket money given to them.
Buying new clothes.
Buying expensive toys examples Lego and cartoon movie trademark toys.
Cannot afford to smoke and drink alcohol.
Cannot afford direct selling products.
Vacation, local or overseas.
Occasions, examples father mother grandparents children relatives and friends birthdays, weddings, funerals, house warming.
Buying electrical items, either new items, spoiled or upgrade.
House maintenance, eg re-painting, pipe inside wall leaking.
Festive seasons expenses.
Branded goods, eg bags, shoes, shirts, dress.
No expensive restaurant and no normal restaurant also. If eat outside, eat noodle, chicken rice or mixed rice. No ordering dishes.
No helping others, eg giving money to someone in need.
No emergency expenses.
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