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Sunday, September 18, 2016

List of Export counters due to Strong US Dollar

Don't play play, now is almost RM4.20.

Below are the list of export oriented stocks. They will make more profit when the USD is up.

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I'm not saying that now is the time to buy export counters. Sharing of info only. By the way, I don't gain by sharing info, and always receive criticism. People will leave some nasty comments in my blog and facebook. Is like eating nice durian, hope others can enjoy. I'll be glad if my sharing can help others. If you think my method is wrong or need to be improved, why don't you guide me. I'm also still learning.

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If you buy USD, USD up 1%, you make 1%. Some of the stocks below if USD up 1%, their profit could up 1.5% or some companies 2%. So, if you want to benefit from USD or hedge against USD, you may consider stocks that can gain at least 1% or more from 1% up of USD.
But some companies also will make less than 1% if USD up 1%.

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It is also better to look for companies with good prospect, high dividend yield, high target price or fair value. In case the USD does not go up, at least the stock also can go up due to higher profit or receive good dividend.
People said avoid stocks with no prospect. They may gain from USD, but profit may down due to much lower sales.


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The list below are 12 months ago, but most are still valid. Do your own research. Their share prices are the latest and target prices are quite recent. The target price I roughly average it if got few brokers. If I didn't indicate any target price means unable to find.

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Some are not export stocks, but are benefited from strong USD or weakening of Ringgit (example strong Yen or Euro). They may have operations in overseas.

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I also list those have negative impact from weakening of Ringgit.

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Once again, sharing of information only, I may have typo or the info may be outdated. Check with your finacial planner.

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The target price or fair value are BEFORE the straightening of USD to near RM4.20 now (RM4.15??). If USD up, the Target Price later will also be up.

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I also list down those are negatively impacted by weakening of Ringgit. Don't mix up. DO NOT MIX UP.

POSITIVE from weakening of Ringgit:
Eversendai share price RM0.47, target price RM0.65

Rubber product manufacturers, semiconductor firms and furniture producers, because their costs are mainly in Ringgit while sales are mainly in USD.

RUBBER
Top Glove RM4.69, TP RM5.50
Supermax RM2.15, TP RM2.60
Hartalega RM4.40, TP RM4.30
Kossan RM6.25, TP RM7.50
Karex RM2.40, TP RM2.31

Furniture and Wood Related.
Homeritz share price RM0.885, Target Price RM1.09
Evergreen share price RM0.92, Target price RM1.48
Heavea RM1.25
JTIASA RM1.22
TAANN RM3.51, TP RM5.00
Latitud RM4.64, TP RM5.15
SHH RM1.77
LIIHEN RM2.93


Semiconductor or IT RELATED
Vitrox RM3.83, TP RM3.70
Last year Maybank said 1% USD up, Vitrox bottomline up 2%.
INARI, RM3.31, TP RM3.30
UNISEM RM2.70, TP RM2.85
UCHI TECH RM1.65
MPI RM7.93, TP RM8.48
EG RM0.84, TP RM1.02

Gaming.
Because some of the operations are in overseas.
GenM RM4.37, TP RM4.50
GenM family Genting RM7.76, TP RM9.15

Packaging
Daibochi  RM2.25, TP RM2.14
Tomypak RM1.66, TP RM2.00
Thong Guan TGUAN  RM4.28, TP RM4.88


OTHERS
MISC RM7.53, RM8.10
WCT RM1.65, TP RM1.85
OLDTOWN RM1.95, TP RM2.00
TIMECOM, RM8.42, TP RM7.28
Hovid RM0.375
IQGroup RM2.24, TP RM2.75
Kawan RM3.79
Asiafile RM3.68 ASIAFLE

CSCENIC RM1.69
You see this CSCENIC, there was one quarter it said although USD is strong, their profit was not good because undercut by Europe competitors. I think Euro also dropped against the USD, not sure. So you must determine whether is USD strong, or Ringgit weak.
VS??? Share price RM1.33, target price RM1.75

PRELEXUS. PRLEXUS because manufacture for NIKE.
Comcorp??
KESM??
Cimb and Unimech??? Benefit from weak Ringgit due to their Indonesia operations?
OCK probably may not benefit from strong USD but may benefit from weak Ringgit because of their South East Asia opeartions. I may be wrong but this is with my limited info.

Not sure about the below list...????
Ahb
Dps
Eksons
Eurosp
Facbind
Ffhb
Jaycorp
Lcheong
Pohuat
Sernkou
Sign
Syf
Tafi
Swscap



XXXXXXXX=======XXXXXXXXX
NEGATIVE from weakening of Ringgit. Do NOT mix up, below are negative. Bad from strong USD or weak Ringgit.

Company that import raw materials in USD but sell in Ringgit and those who have USD debt.

Automotive Sector
UMW
Tan Chong
Last year Kenanga said 1% fluatuation in USD, UMW's bottomline could be affected by 3%. Tan Chong is 6%.
Berjaya Auto RM2.30, TP RM2.55
DRBHCOM RM1.34, TP RM1.31
MBMR RM2.52, TP RM2.68


Aviation/Airlines
Because many borrowings are in USD. Fuel cost also. Unless they have hedged it.
AirAsia
You guys know AirAsia much better than me.


Telco?
Many telcos have borrowings in USD.
Axiata RM5.32, TP RM5.20
TM
MAXIS
ASTRO.
Because most content costs are in USD but sales are in Ringgit.


Others
Nestle
TCM
TENAGA
SUNWAY- USD debt
IJM- USD debt
F&N
GAB GUINNESS HEIM      HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BERHAD


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Sunday, September 11, 2016

IQgroup stock research analysis


CAN GLOBAL LED MARKET GROWTH LIGHT UP IQ GROUP HOLDINGS’ PROSPECTS?
By Tan Jiahui | Shares Investment – Wed, Sep 7, 2016 

Remember the first time you walked into a room that automatically lights up? While rare in the past, many buildings are now equipped with smart lighting systems, which uses sensors to detect and control lighting to achieve energy efficiency.

Today, sensors are also commonly used in numerous applications including car park space monitoring, central heating and air-conditioning systems (using thermostats) and speed cameras. As the world move towards the vision of the Internet of Things (IoT), sensors which can collect and transmit data back to cloud servers play an important role.

With potential seen in the market for sensor-based products, we zoom in on IQ Group Holdings (IQ Group), a motion sensor lighting producer listed in Malaysia.

Business – Most Revenue from Europe, Japan, and the US

IQ Group, founded in Penang, Malaysia in 1989, is principally engaged in the design and manufacturing of sensor products which includes passive infrared detectors, motion sensor light controllers, wireless video communication devices, door bells and home security system products.
Subsequently, the group formed a joint venture with Taiwan-based SemiLEDs Optoelectronics Co to diversify into the development, design and manufacture of light-emitting diode (LED) luminaires, hoping to ride on the growing LED market.

The company operates under both the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) business models, with manufacturing facilities located in Penang and Dongguan, China. The group derives most of its revenue from customers in Europe, Japan and the US, and main customers of the firm are said to include big names like OSRAM, OPTEX Co and Hager.

The core technologies of the firm focus on passive infrared (PIR) sensors which operate by monitoring the background ‘temperature’), and wire-free door chimes and video intercom systems.
Turnaround Story – Recovered from GFC; Revenue and Net Profit Growing

Looking at IQ Group’s past operating performance, things were not all smooth for the firm. The company fell into losses for three consecutive financial years from FY09 to FY11 before making a turnaround in FY12.

The group’s performance in those periods was dragged down by poor economic conditions during the global financial crisis, coupled with a rise in manufacturing costs, particularly in China. IQ Group then underwent a successful restructuring exercise (completed in FY11) and streamlined its processes to improve efficiency and reduce costs, which helped return it to profitability.


In the past five financial years from FY12 to FY16, the firm’s top and bottom lines have been on a general uptrend. Revenue and net profit grew at compounded annual growth rate of 6.3 percent and 35 percent over the period to reach RM190.9 million and RM20.9 million respectively.
While there was a dip in earnings in FY13, we note that it was due to foreign exchange loss of RM1.6 million and the absence of disposal gains amounting to RM4.2 million recorded in FY12. Net margin has also been improving and held steady at 10.8 percent and 10.9 percent for FY15 and FY16 respectively.


Strong Balance Sheet And Cash Flows – 30% of Market Cap
In terms of financial strength, IQ Group boasts a cash-rich balance sheet that is free of debts. As of 30 June 2016, the firm’s net cash stood at approximately RM56.8 million (including short-term deposits), which translates to roughly 30.8 percent of its market capitalisation of RM184.4 million as of 5 September.


On the cash flows front, the group has posted positive operating cash flows in all of the past years except for FY11. We like that the company’s free cash flows have also been positive in the latest four financial years from FY13 to FY16. The strong cash generating capabilities have, in turn, allowed IQ Group to build up its cash reserves.


As business recovered and cash pile grew, the firm rewarded shareholders with the resumption of dividend payout in FY15. Based on the share price of RM2.09 as at 5 September’s close, IQ Group’s FY16 dividend per share of RM0.10 translated to a decent yield of 4.8 percent.


Management: In-house Brand LED Lighting Expected To Drive Growth
In the past few years, IQ Group has developed its own intelligent lighting solutions, which was launched in early 2015 under the Lumiqs brand. Lumiqs LED products are equipped with wireless transceivers and can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to movement of people in an area, allowing up to 90 percent energy saving.

Currently, the Lumiqs range of products are mainly targeted at the industrial and commercial markets but the firm is developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering (projected to be released by 2018) to be used in small commercial premises and residential households. According to the firm, orders for the Lumiqs lighting solutions have already started coming in from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.

The group expects its in-house brand name LED products to be its driver of growth in the next five years. Riding on a forecast that the global LED market will hit US$42.7 billion by 2020, the company targets for the Lumiqs brand to generate 10 percent of its total revenue by 2018, and 30 percent by 2020.

Conclusion
Based on a share price of RM2.09, the company’s shares are trading at a trailing twelve months price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.7 times, which seems reasonable given the company’s performance and growth prospect. In contrast, Taiwan-listed peer Everspring Industry Co (Everspring) trades at a P/E of 25.3 times. While Everspring’s market capitalisation is about three times that of IQ Group, we note that the former’s latest full year net profit is only about 10 percent higher.

Overall, we foresee the demand for the IQ group’s products to rise as people become more conscious about the environment and saving energy. Additionally, with the increasing popularity of the IoT, the company is in a good position to capitalise on the trend using its innovation and expertise.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

IQ GROUP stock- Grows Brighter When You Walk Nearer

IQgroup
Standard Analysis:
PE Ratio:  8.8x (Past 4 Quarters)
Dividend yield: 4.7%
Net cash RM0.54 per share. 27% of share price.

Growth?
IQ-group is an established global leader in the design & manufacture of lighting, security and convenience products, working with some of the world’s major retail and professional brands.
Over their 25+ year history they have built up an enviable reputation for design, innovation, quality and value within our core technologies, encompassing motion sensors, LED lighting and wirefree door entry products.

Employing approximately 1300 people globally, they boast manufacturing operations in Malaysia and China, plus offices in Taiwan, Japan and the United Kingdom.


News:
In March 2014, they said :
“During the last 18 months we have spent money to develop intelligent lighting solutions to be marketed under the Lumiqs brand name.”
= They have spent the money.

“The Lumiqs LED products enable users to save over 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the number of people in an area.”
= Good product that can save 90% of energy?

“They will be released into the market in the second half of 2014 for the global market”
= I think there is a delay. News in September 2016 said starting 2015.

“Expected to play an important role in revenue contribution for the 2016 fiscal year, which starts from April 1 2015.”
= Did we see improvement in Financial Result for year ended March 2016? No. Result was flat. But don’t know how much is from Lumiqs and how much is from forex.

In Sep 2016, they said:
“IQ Group Holdings Bhd is working for its Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of the group’s revenue by 2020. By 2018, it is targeted that the Lumiqs brand should contribute about 10% to the group’s revenue.”
= Good prospect from new product.

“We have established distribution channels for Lumiqs in South-East Asia. Now we are working on creating additional sales channels in Europe and other continents,” he said.”
= New markets

“Both Lumiqs and the new product will help drive the group’s growth over the next five years”
= Good prospect for 5 years
I have missed out on The Star newspaper, if not I would have bought her at slightly lower price, the money saved can add few dishes to my Nasi Campur (mixed rice) for many days.

My view is that this IQ Group have growth. How much, I don’t know. Although past few years, their financial is not so consistent, but the PE ratio is not expensive and with dividend yield of 4.7%, it provides some support. With net cash of RM0.54, it can be used to support dividend payment or for new products/markets development without calling cash injection.

IQGroup fair value and target price? I will just play by ear, assess the new developments.

For those who are concerned about price, she was RM0.35 in September 2013. RM1.00 in July 2014. RM3.00 in May 2015.



Thanks.

The Star NEWS ARTICLES BELOW:
Thursday, 1 September 2016.
Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of IQ revenue by 2020
GEORGE TOWN: IQ Group Holdings Bhd is working for its Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of the group’s revenue by 2020.

Group chief executive officer Daniel Beasley (pic) told StarBiz after an AGM that the goal was achievable because the Lumiqs brand had started to receive orders from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.
“We expect orders to grow rapidly from the South-East Asian region, Japan, and Switzerland.
“By 2018, it is targeted that the Lumiqs brand should contribute about 10% to the group’s revenue,” he added.

Launched in early 2015, Lumiqs lighting solutions enable industrial users to save up to 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the movement of people in an area.
“We have established distribution channels for Lumiqs in South-East Asia.
“Now we are working on creating additional sales channels in Europe and other continents,” he said.
IQ is now developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering for release under a new business model by 2018.

“This product is for use in small commercial premises and residential households.
“Both Lumiqs and the new product will help drive the group’s growth over the next five years,” he said.

Beasley said the group spent about 50% of the material cost to import raw materials for its lighting solutions.
“The cost of importation is offset by our sales which are largely in US, allowing use to gain in the foreign exchange,” he added.

For the 2017 financial year first quarter ended June 30 2016, the group posted RM6.6mil in net profit on the back of RM53.9mil in turnover, compared to RM6.4mil and RM50mil achieved in the previous year corresponding period.

According to a LEDinside report, the LED industrial lighting market is expected to grow from US$2.93bil to US5.2bil in 2020, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 15% during the five-year period.
=============
The Start Saturday, 22 March 2014 
Riding on a forecast that the global light-emiting diode market (LED) will hit US$42bil in 2019, IQ Group Holdings Bhd plans to ride on its in-house brand name of LED lighting products to drive the group’s growth from April next year.

The LED products to be released come under the category of smart lighting, which according to TechNavio, a London-based research and advisory company, is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR ) of 36.4% over the period 2013-2018.

Group CEO Daniel Beasley tells StarBizWeek that previously the group had concentrated on manufacturing original equipment manufacturing (OEM) lighting solutions.

“Our in-house brand ‘IQ Group’ contributed between 1% to 2% of the sensor and LED segment, which generates on an average about 75% of the group’s revenue.

“During the last 18 months we have spent money to develop intelligent lighting solutions to be marketed under the Lumiqs brand name.

“They will be released into the market in the second half of 2014 for the global market, and is expected to play an important role in revenue contribution for the 2016 fiscal year, which starts fromApril 1 2015,” he says.

The Lumiqs LED products enable users to save over 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the number of people in an area.

“We are targeting mainly the industrial and commercial markets.
“We will also release a version suited for use in residential homes,” he says.
Beasley says he expects Japan to be a major market for IQ’s energy saving intelligent lighting solutions.

“Japan has reduced their usage of nuclear energy, and are starting to import coal and oil to generate electricity.
“This means that there are a lot of business opportunities for energy saving lighting solutions to grow,” he says.

IQ is also talking with strategic business partners to market the Lumiqs products in Europe and Asia.
“We want to work with partners supplying to wholesale channels and the right business networks across the globe,” he says.

IQ expects the sales for the current year in operations to grow by double digit percentage compared to the fiscal year 2013, which ends in two weeks time on March 31.
“We are confident as we have delivered over RM30mil worth of new LED lighting solutions to our customers worldwide,” he says.

A US-based research house forecasts that the LED market will grow close to 50% until 2019.

About Me

Dollar Cost Averaging and PEGGY Method. Sharing info on cheap (low PE) company with high growth, low Gearing or Net Cash and High Dividend Yield.

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