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Wednesday, June 14, 2017

KUB- Please don't drop to RM0.35

Some may wondering why KUB share price dropped, I tried to read some news and comments, no specific reason. But many said it could be due to the take over price of RM0.35 as compared with KUB share price now of RM0.52. Many may come into conclusion that KUB is only worth RM0.35.

KUB share price RM0.52
Spotted in my telegram RM0.595.
Alamak, this one dropped teruk.

One must look at when this RM0.35 was fixed. It was a call option provided two years ago. Of course they could had fixed the price at a forward looking method but this is between the buyer and the seller. Why and how they fix the price or why sell, is between them. How much KUB worth is determined by its fundamental and the growth prospect.

TTM PE ratio of 11.9x is not too expensive. Profit has been growing gradually for the past few quarters. For growth, refer below.


http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/02/kub-in-expansion-mode/

Cincincaicai analyse because time to sleep.

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

High Target Price Stocks



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Saturday, May 27, 2017

Tong Herr more than 40% upside by RHB




Why Tongher?

I don't really like bull run. During good bull run, most stocks also up. Tom's stocks also up, Dick and Harry's stocks also up. Ah Zhiu and Ah Kow's stocks also up. The prices sometimes run ahead of fundamental and very tempting to drop these stocks.

Looking for other stocks also harder because most stocks already expensive.

I like sideway market, if we selected undervalued growth stocks, sooner or later the prices will up, and there are still many not up yet and waiting for us.

If after market up and we say we stopped a while and wait for market to come down a bit, people will accuse us of timing the market. You know, we preached "don't time the market", and if we time, we are hypocrite.

Okay, for those who must buy or must hold some stocks, let us look at Tongher.

Back to the questions, why Tongher?

Many stocks now are trading at PE ratio of 15 times or 20 times.

Tongher share price RM3.66

Spotted in my telegram RM3.50

Tongher PE ratio TTM 12 months 11.7x

PE ratio of 11.7x is not too expensive. As per RHB research, the PE ratio will drop to 9.1x. High growth for 2017 as we already saw it in 1st quarter result that exceeded RHB forecast.

Dividend yield 8.2% for 2017. But analyst said 5.4% should be the norm, explain later.

Target price of RM4.86 is 32.7% upside from current stock price and if add in the dividend yield of 8.2%, the total upside potential is 40.9%.

High dividend yield. Paying RM0.30 this year giving a yield 8.2% but RHB analyst said RM0.20 should likely be more sustainable, yield of 5.4%. Whichever the amount, is still consider high, and RHB said in the report they also not very sure.

New initiate coverage by RHB just few days ago.

The result that just announced on Thursday exceeded RHB forecast. Although the result exceeded expectation, the price didn't go up, probably waiting for us to load up.

Below are extracted from RHB research....
============
Strong balance sheet with growing cash pile. Tong Herr’s net cash rose to MYR86.7m in 1Q17 from MYR44.8m in 4Q16.

(Tong Herr) has three main subsidiaries in Malaysia and Thailand. They are involved in the manufacturing and selling of stainless steel fasteners such as bolt, screws, nuts, stud bolts and threaded rods, as well as aluminium.

Acquisition of an approximately 49.99% equity interest in THFT is likely to contribute positively. Post-acquisition, the group owns approximately 100% equity interest of Tong Heer Fasteners (Thailand) Co Ltd (THFT). This would allow it to facilitate future plans on business expansion, enhancing cost efficiencies and human resource development. 
Note..... (More % also means more share of profit or get all the profit. Sorry I'm very lazy to check when this was completed, how much is the impact, whether it has been reflected in the past quarterly result(s), just follow analyst's recommendation)

Tong Herr completed the disposal of its 35.33% equity interest in Fuco International Ltd (Fuco) thereby relinquishing a loss-making business entity and realising its investment.
Note: (again, I didn't check when, $ impact, already reflected or not, etc). I always just cincin caicai analyse only.

Conclusion: Analyst said good.


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Seven investment tips from Neoh


Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Malton-LA may have to sell or convert NOW !!!

The article that I shared on Saturday 13th May 2017 on Malton-LA is no longer valid because of the announcement made by Malton on Monday 15th May 2017.

Early redemption...... last done price RM1.77, will be redeemed at RM1.00? I didn't read the full details yet. Please read the annoucement and check the terms.

Check the suspension date also.


Faster check with your remisier/dealers want you need to do.

Or remisiers/dealers faster tell your client want to do. 



Persuant to the terms and conditions stipulated in the Trust Deed dated 27 May 2011 and Supplementary Trust Deed dated 20 January 2014 constituting all the 2011/2018 RCSLS, Malton Berhad shall undertake the early full redemption of all outstanding 2011/2018 RCSLS in issue as at book closure date on 31 May 2017.

Attached is the advertisement of the Notice to Holders of the 2011/2018 RCSLS dated 16 May 2017.






Thursday, May 4, 2017

Hold MFCB or Warrant better?



Not telling whether can buy MFCB or not becoz I published 3 articles on warrant 6 months ago and now the price has gone up about 250%.
A bit too late to ask. This table is for your reference only, comparing holding mother or warrant is better, at this price.
This is what may happen at maturity, anytime the prices may go crazily from now, eg mother drop but warrant up, warrant drop a bit but mother up.
I hope I didn’t make any mistake in the figures.


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Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Spritzer

Spritzer share price RM2.39
Spotted in my telegram RM2.31

Spritzer Dividend yield 1.4%

See what the company said.

Despite a soft consumer market, Spritzer Bhd anticipates a double-digit growth in sales this year. The Start Monday, 24 April 2017


Exported to UK and target Europe.
Spritzer Bhd has started exports of its mineral water to the United Kingdom and hopes the country will eventually be a springboard for it to penetrate into Europe. The Star Saturday, 11 February 2017
## The quantity to UK is very small, but hope it can really be a springboard to Europe.


Promote as Health
"We will market the product under a new brand name called Acilis and position the product as an upper mid to premium product so that it will be feasible to sell there.
He says the UK Trading Standard has also allowed this product to be labelled in the country as possessing anti-aging properties that encourage softer skin, stronger nails, shiny hair and supple joints due to silicon enhanced promotion of natural collagen in the body.
"We think this will be our competitive edge as we won't be competing with the cheaper bottled water brands there.
"As proven in research by Keele University, it also helps in the removal of aluminium in the body - which is a known neurotoxin as a result of life-long exposure to the metal in food, tap water, cosmetics, medications and environmental air pollution from car exhaust and cigarette smoke," Chuah says.
The Star Saturday, 11 February 2017



Room for Export to grow?
Exports presently constitute to about 10% of Spritzer's annual revenue.


China
Given the number of incumbents already in the market, the group's task in China will not be easy. That said, with China's history of food scandals coupled with rising affluence in the nation, people might be more willing to pay extra for 'premium' imported products - the segment targeted by the firm - that are deemed as 'safer'. Tan Jiahui May 6, 2016 Stock Market, Upside Potential


China- 2 years from April 2016.
Spritzer started exporting mineral water to China at the end of April 2016. Malaysia's largest bottled water producer expects the venture to become profitable in two years. In the meantime, the expenses incurred to carry out the venture may affect its financial performance. The Edge Financial Daily, on June 26, 2016.
"Water is bulky, we know that expanding to China is even more costly. However, we will not be competing with the low-price segment. We will sell it at medium to premium price, so it can cover our cost," he said.
Sow said it launched 'Spritzer Tinge' in China at a price of between five to eight yuan per 500ml bottle. It will also sell Spritzer Fibre and Spritzer mineral water there.
## Probably we can start seeing the result by next year.


I don't think this stock will jump up sky high. Water is heavy and cheap, so probably the export market may not be so easy except for premium bottle which has a smaller market size.



Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Ajiya- can we invest in something that we don't understand?

Ajiya share price RM0.91.

Spotted in my telegram n/a.
I first spotted about RM0.84 two weeks ago before I created Telegram. The article is this.... read this two weeks ago.....
Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong, who witnessed the ceremony, reiterated that the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) has stipulated that government projects must have 70% IBS content, and hopes to enforce a 50% IBS score for the private sector by 2018 in the Klang Valley. The requirement will be extended to the whole of Peninsular Malaysia by 2020.

For the past two weeks I wanted to post on Ajiya but was searching the news on Ajiya and CIDB but couln't find because now I know it appeared in Matrix news and not Ajiya.

Anyway, the problem of slowness will be solved because I have created a telegram. 

Ajiya PE ratio TTM 12.4x.

Ajiya dividend yield 2.2%.


Why Ajiya?

They have this AGIBS.

December last year the company said......
.....though the system, dubbed the Ajiya Green Integrated Building System (AGIBS), is new — it was launched just last year — Chan believes it is a very competitive system that should help the group improve its earnings performance in FY17 ending Nov 30, 2017.

With the AGIBS, Chan said Ajiya is among 15 companies shortlisted by the Public Works Department  (JKR) to supply the AGIBS to contractors to build about 100 schools in Peninsular Malaysia, though he did not reveal the value of the job.

“With the contribution of the AGIBS, we expect our earnings in FY17 to at least match the one in FY15, which is about RM22 million, if not better. But with a challenging environment, we dare not be too optimistic,” he said.

On average, the per-unit price of the AGIBS is about RM20,000 to RM25,000, which will provide Ajiya a reasonable double-digit profit margin, according to Chan.

At present, the AGIBS does not contribute much to its bottom line, but Chan expects it to make up at least one-third of the group’s earnings in FY17, while its metal roofing and safety glass businesses are expected to make up the remaining two-thirds.

Ajiya had attracted the attention of some notable institutions.

Our components can be delivered to the site by light trucks, and then assembled like Lego,”
............

From The Star. 
Integrated Building System (Agibs). With Agibs, the conventional 24-month construction period is significantly reduced to only eight months.
---------------
If profit of RM22 million as guided above, PE ratio will still be the same about 12.6x.

I saw the word AGIBS and the Matrix news IBS, I think Ajiya will have great potential if both IBS is the same thing that are talking about.


# Entering East Malaysia. 
The Edge news Dec 2016.....
Ajiya on Oct 24 inked a memorandum of understanding with galvanised and coated steel product maker YKGI Holdings Bhd for a long-term business partnership in Sabah and Sarawak. “Over the years, we have not explored East Malaysia much due to manpower constraints. Now, with the partnership with YKGI, we hope to do more in this part of the country,” said Chan.

Entering Asean...
Outside Malaysia, Chan said, Ajiya had taken the AGIBS into Thailand, where the group sees good demand for the system, and intends to introduce it in Indonesia next.

Said on Annual Report....
We also expect our Ajiya Green Integrated Building System (“AGIBS”) to play a vital role in our growth trajectory and will continue to expand its market in 
Malaysia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries. 

With affordable housing becoming an important agenda in the government’s Budget 2017, we believe AGIBS will benefit significantly, as it is a technology that promises an acceleration to the completion of products and attain higher productivity from the shorter construction period as well as reduced labour and wastages.


# If the Ajiya share price drop to very cheap level, probably Dato' Chan may buy it as what he did and said last year.

His direct stake has increased from 18% to 19.8%, and indirect remain the same 10%.


Why NOT Ajiya?

Accounting error. Previously some items in P&L was wrongly reported, but has been rectified recently.

Price has gone up 50% from RM0.60 in Dec 2016 to RM0.91 now. But if we analyse further, the price actually dropped from RM1.00 in Aug 2016, probably due to poor result and as Dato' said it was institutional selling.

Property sector may still struggling.

Latest result announced last Friday the revenue still flat. Don't be misled by the title "Ajiya’s 1Q earnings triple on higher other income", read carefully other income (gain on sale of property. 

Other business units may not perform well and off set the growth of AGIBS

Conclusion.
If government want to impose at least 50% and later 70% of IBS content, then Ajiya may have potential if both IBS are the same IBS they are talking about.

Actually don't really understand what is this all about. But we don't have to know 100% before we invest.


How many percent of profit come from CIMB banking? How many % from investment? Overseas? Interest income more or fee? How many countries do they have operations or subsidiary? I see people buying CIMB without knowing all these.

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Saturday, April 29, 2017

Please join my Telegram, don't want you to miss out!!!!!

If you don't have Telegram, install it.
Pokemon/ Angry Bird = Games. 
Telegram = Investment = Money

https://telegram.me/bursaPeggyMethod


Why? Because I only share good news. Few stocks mentioned in my telegram during the day move up nicely, eg Sendai more than 20%, Krono 20%, Ocncash 10%, etc within few days or 1 to 2 week and some within contra period.

Of course some dropped a bit, but some also up a bit. In good market maybe 30% will drop a bit, 30% up a bit, 20% unchange, and 20% up a lot.

Why nothing will drop a lot? Because I only share good news and during good market sentiment within short period of time, these stocks probably will not suddenly drop a lot. Unless there is a small war, then almost all stocks also will drop.

If I find a good stock for long term, it normally take me few weeks to post in my blog or facebook. I use my free time to read, less time posting . I try my very best not to make mistake in figures and gather more info, so will take longer time. Sometimes I also wait for quarterly result to confirm or wait nearer to their profit confirmation. 

But once I spotted, the stocks sometimes move up very fast. Ekovest warrant 100%, Dnex 50%, Jaks 50%. Example Notion, the price I posted in blog/facebook was already 25% higher, same for OCNCASH 50% higher. Oldtown was RM2.20 now RM2.68.

VS price was RM1.60 recommended by a stranger during CNY open house. He specifically mentioned warrant, now up 50% already. Every week went up slightly I also no mood to post already.

Very demotivated to post if the share price has gone up a lot after I spotted unless it has easy content (easy for me to write) and still have potential.


Off course some stock prices dropped or didn't go up before I post in FB.

Ajiya unchanged.
Rexit dropped
Spritzer unchanged
JFTech dropped.
Texchem up a bit.

Now what I'm going to do? If I found any good news, I will immediately post in Telegram. Then I will take my own sweet time to post in FB.

But be careful !!!!!  Those in telegram can be short term or long term. But those that appear in my FB are those that can sleep well, no need to check the price every 5 minutes or even every week.


Remember this:

# I share only good news. Good news = good money.

#Don't mute me because I don't flood or spam you. Average one day 2 times (1 time could have 3 pictures but  still 1 time because you only need to see open 1 time). Some days zero.

# I check before I share, I don't simply share. TMCLIFE announced very good result but I didn't share because PE ratio already super high 70x. Yes, during the day the stock didn't move up.

# I don't pump and dump. My older readers will know my analysis are for good sharing purpose.


# Is not how good am I. Is because all these are good news. Nothing to do with me.

# Some remisiers, pdt, ivt, ET, Mr T or whatever T may be looking for idea or info for their day trade or contra.

# Some readers of my blog or facebook may miss my post or late because facebook only show us random posts.

Join now.


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Tuesday, April 25, 2017

OCNCASH- are you too late?



OCNCASH stock.
Oceancash Pacific Bhd.
Share price: RM0.68
PE ratio TTM 15 times.

Listed in 2004, Oceancash Pacific Berhad is primarily involved in the manufacture of felts and non-woven fabrics. The company, which commands about 60% of the Malaysian felt market, mainly produces thermoplastic and resinated felts that are used in the automotive and air-conditioning industries. In the non-woven segment, OCNCASH’s fabrics are supplied to disposable hygiene product manufacturers. An estimated 80% of its non-woven fabrics are exported to more than 10 countries across the globe.
Source: CIMB




Why OCNCASH?
Potential transfer to Main Market, or the uncle aunty like called it Main Board. They already made more than RM20 million in the last 3 or 5 years and the latest financial year more than RM6 million. 

Initiated research by CIMB with Buy recommendation on 3rd April, with target price of RM0.88. CIMB said...... Felt demand shifting into high gear through automotive industry. OCNCASH’s felt division contributes up to 37% and 58% of OCNCASH’s revenue and EBITDA, respectively. Moving forward, we project significant volume growth on higher demand, especially from the  automotive segment. OCNCASH recently secured more orders from new and existing customers in both Indonesia and Malaysia. This is expected to raise total monthly outputs significantly, albeit on a progressive basis. Higher auto production in Malaysia once Proton secures a foreign partner by mid-2017 is another catalyst.




On another report on 11th April, see what CIMB said in its report......
From Indonesia with love.
We recently hosted a meeting between Oceancash Pacific’s management and 12 analysts and fund managers.
There were no major surprises from the meeting, with management having a positive view (which we share) premised on its strong earnings growth. 
The group expects strong volume growth in the felt division, mainly driven by rising demand from Indonesia, especially from the automotive industry.
Management also expects higher demand from the air conditioning industry. 
Maintain Add with an unchanged TP of RM0.88. Total upside stands at 27.7%.

New orders to drive the non-woven segment. For the non-woven (hygiene) segment, the group expects rising customer enquiries to translate to significantly stronger  production. Note that our -woven segment. For the non-woven (hygiene) segment, the group expects rising customer enquiries to translate to stronger orders in the near term. Management said that it is still in the midst of finalising orders from a new customer, which can lead to significantly stronger demand for its hygiene products. In the event that demand is stronger than expected, OPB did not discount the possibility of adding a new line to increase production. Note that our earnings estimates have yet to take into account any significant new orders.



CONCERNS:
Are you too late in OCNCASH?

According to CIMB....... Since our initiation on OCNCASH, the stock has appreciated by 25%. However, we still advocate that investors accumulate the stock, given its strong growth prospects. We are projecting the group recording a 3-year CAGR of 18.6% (FY17-19F), premised on: i) higher sales of felts in Indonesia, ii) better economies of scale from felt volume growth, and iii) higher global demand for non-woven products, especially in China and South East Asia. We maintain our Add call, with an unchanged SOP-based TP of RM0.88.

You see, when CIMB recommended, the price was only RM0.56. However, CIMB said although up 25% already you are not too late. However, when I spotted OCNCASH, it was on 23 February the price was only RM0.45, now up more than 50%. Are you too late?

If you wonder why I did not share when it was RM0.45. I check the stock, it was good but the info was everywhere. News, picture, result, blog, etc. It will take me many hours to share. At that time, my conclusion was on the stock was good” but I cannot just share one word good, I must tell why. Furthermore, I see no research coverage, I thought can wait a while. There are also some articles or stocks queing up for me post. Before I got time to share, it already went up substantially so I put on hold first until recently I saw CIMB report which makes things easier to share. I can just summarise the reports but it also took me few hours. Trying to explain (or justify) a bit in case of you think that I'm Ma Hou Pao (Cannon Behind the Horse) LOL.





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Friday, April 21, 2017

Matrix Concepts- is it about high dividend yield?



MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD
Share Price RM2.55
PE Ratio ending 2017 March 6.4x
Dividend Yield 5.5% and projected to increase to 7.8% after two years.


Why Matrix share?
The dividend yield is 5.5%, relatively high as compare with many other listed companies.
Some may say they are very generous in paying dividend. Well, this is half-truth. No doubt, they are very generous, but their pay-out ratio of about 35% is quote normal. What make them to have the high yield is because of the low PE ratio, only 6.4x.

Low PE ratio is nothing if the company is not growing, but we can draw comfort that the dividend yield is quite high.

I hope nobody will buy shares solely based on dividend yield. If the share price drops 15%, then3 years of dividend only can break-even.

Look at growth. Based on forecast by Hong Leong, Matrix will continue to grow or expand and the PE ratio will drop to 4.5x for financial year March 2019.

According to Uncle K, we should not buy property stock now. The profit that we are seeing “now” is the sales transacted few years. Due to downturn in the property market, sales were really bad for the past two years and it will be reflected in the financial result in the coming quarter or years. I fully agree with him. In fact, some property counters have already reported lower profit and the prices have also reacted accordingly. However, when investors buy shares, they are also not buying for the profit now, or what the public already knew. They are buying for the future. If someone buying property stock, he probably has factored in the drop in profits for the coming quarters and years, and anticipating a rebound in the property market.

Having said that, does Matrix sales or property “booking” drop?  See what Managing director Datuk Lee Tian Hock said recently……

………. For the financial year ended March 31, 2017 (FY17), Matrix Concepts surpassed its sales target of RM850 million by 23.5% to hit RM1.05 billion. For FY18, it aims to achieve RM1 billion in total sales.
“We have only come towards the [third week] of FY18 but we are very confident about hitting our target. We just clocked in RM200 million in sales from the recent launch of the first residential phase at Ara Sendayan,” Lee said.
Matrix Concepts currently has a total land bank of 2,000 acres (809 ha), with 1,500 acres situated in Negeri Sembilan and the remaining 500 acres in Kluang, Johor.
The group’s existing land bank carries a gross development value of RM12 billion and will keep it busy for the next eight to 10 years, Lee said…………..

From what I see, they will be able to match their 2017 result.

One minor development…… Through its subsidiary Matrix IBS Sdn Bhd, Matrix Concepts (80%) has entered into a joint venture (JV) with Nissin Ex. Co. Ltd (12%) and Nihon House Corporation (8%) to set up a manufacturing plant to manufacture prefabricated building materials using the technology of Industrialised Building System (IBS).
The factory will be located at its Sendayan TechValley, Bandar Sri Sendayan with a planned capex of RM30m (excluding the cost of a 12 acre industrial land). The factory is expected to be completed in 3QCY18 and has a production capacity of 700 terrace houses p.a.
According to Hong Leong…….. We are positive on this development as Matrix stands to benefit from the transfer of IBS technology from both the reputable Japan counterparts, potential cost savings, better built quality and improve efficiency.
While the manufacturing plant is currently targeted to fulfil their in-house development, the JV does not rule out the possibility to supply to other housing developers in the longer term when IBS is widely adopted by the industry.

Matrix are recommended buy by both Hong Leong and Kenanga Investment Bank with target price of RM2.89 and RM2.65 respectively.

If they are able to achieve the forecast by Hong Leong, do you think the price will stay at this level when the PE ratio is 4.5x?


Why Matrix is not our cup of tea?

As mentioned earlier, growth is more important than dividend yield. Can they achieve growth?

Risk of prolong downtrend of the property market.

Matrix is a stock that is being researched by some brokers and we may not get any super cheap price.

Low target price by brokers.

If I may sum up, Matrix share price probably may not “fly” 50% or 100%. But it probably may not “dive” also. The reason I post this is because I saw the article about their sales which is quite encouraging, and also the reasonable high dividend yield. I know there are many people who just like high dividend yield stocks. Maybe they really have no time to study so many stocks or news in the stock market and dividend yield has proven to improve their wealth year after year. Some people may be looking for some property stock because they have a feeling that property stock will rebound soon.



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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

KGB- will MADE IN CHINA lift their profit?


KELINGTON GROUP BERHAD.
PE ratio currently 15 times.
Dividend yield 1.8% after the proposed dividend today.

Why KGB?

See what the management said in the last quarter.....
During the 12 months period ended 31 December 2016, the Group had secured new orders amounting to RM323.44 million. This is the highest amount of new orders ever to be secured by the Group within a year.
Combined with the orders carried forward from the previous year, and new orders secured to-date in 2017, the Group has an orderbook on hand of RM546.99 million, of which RM206.76 million remains outstanding.

Under the current competitive business environment, the Group is focused on delivering the projects on a timely manner and is vigilant in managing costs.
Based on the Group’s orderbook level and barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group is confident that the Company will continue with the good performance in the coming year.

=========  

BENEFITS FROM “MADE IN CHINA 2025” INITIATIVE.
“Under the Made in China 2025 initiative, China aims to become a superpower in the manufacturing of high technology industries by 2025. The China government is undergoing a significant capacity expansion growth and is expected to invest heavily to increase its production 
of memory chips and semiconductors.”
“According to industry reports, China aims to produce 70% of its total consumption of integrated circuits, from approximately 10% now. This augurs well for players like us as we aim to gain a  share of the capex expansion activities of these technology players,” he added further.

The Group is optimistic that it will be positively impacted by the expected capacity expansion growth in the China electronics market.

=====

Dividend.
Although growing, still paying RM0.01 dividend. Last year RM0.005

Expand to have recurring income.
KELINGTON SECURES FIRST INDUSTRIAL GAS SUPPLY CONTRACT.

Under the contract, Kelington will setup an onsite generator to produce nitrogen gas at the Hanwha Q CELLS’ manufacturing plant in Cyberjaya, Malaysia. In return, Hanwha Q CELLS will pay a fixed facility fee amounting to approximately RM20 million over a period of ten years.

Hanwha Q CELLS is one of the world’s largest manufacturers of solar cells and modules and uses nitrogen in its manufacturing process.

Ir. Raymond Gan, Chief Executive Officer of Kelington Group Berhad said, “Our expansion plan into a recurring long-term business is taking place as planned. This is our first industrial gas supply contract, marking our successful foray into this new area. This new business is long-term in nature and would add a stable and recurring income stream to the Group. It would enhance our earnings visibility, providing sustainable returns to our shareholders.”


See what Hong Leong said.....

 KGB was a leading Ultra-High Purity (UHP) Gas and Chemical Delivery Solutions Provider in Malaysia, China, Taiwan and Singapore. KGB is an integrated engineering solutions provider specializing in ultra-high purity (UHP) gas and chemical delivery systems, mechanical process engineering, mechanical systems and electrical systems. The Group provides end-to-end engineering solutions ranging from system design to fabrication and installation of equipment to testing and maintenance. 

Outstanding orderbook about RM277m. 
Yesterday, KGB announced that it has secured RM24m contract to Givaudan Singapore (a leading flavour and fragrances manufacturer). Together with the RM19m contract to a China global semiconductor MNC (secured on 3 Apr) and its first industrial gas supply contract of RM20m (secured on 28 Mar) to Hanwha Q CELLS (one of the world’s largest manufacturers of solar cells and modules), KGB’s has an outstanding orderbook of ~RM277m. 

Serving diversified industries. 
Established since 2000, the Group serves customers in the high technology industry across different sectors such as Industrial Gases, Wafer Fabrication, Solar Energy, TFT-LCT, Bioscience and Light Emitting Diode (LED). KGB has also expanded its industry focus to include the F&B, pharmaceutical, healthcare and oil and gas sectors. In FY2016, Singapore contributed 39% to the revenue, followed by Malaysia (38%), Taiwan (10%), China 98%) and other (5%). 

Potential downtrend reversal. 
KGB is currently trading at 8.3x FY16 P/E (7.1x if excludes 7.9 sen netcash). The stock has retraced from 52-week high of RM0.64 (5 Apr) to a low of RM0.53 (14 Apr) before ending at RM0.565, above the 30-d SMA level (now at RM0.545). Short term rebound seems taking shape and we expect prices to bottom up amid the formation of hammer-liked candlestick. 

A decisive breach above RM0.59 (10-d SMA) is likely to spur prices higher towards RM0.64 and our long term objective of RM0.70 (123.6% FR). Key supports are RM0.53-0.545. Cut loss at RM0.525. 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 18 Apr 2017

According to a blogger excelyou, some of KGB's major customers are growing.

Net cash about RM0.079

Although price has up 100%, it has dropped 16% from RM0.63 in April to RM0.53, but now has reserved and resumed uptrend. Can refer chart analysis by Hong Leong above.



Concerns.
For those who are concerned on the price, KGB up from RM0.30 in January 2017 to slightly less than RM0.60 now.

If their result not good, price will be under great pressure. 

The gas supply project is something new to them and may not be easy to execute.

I don't know how Hong Leong got the profit RM15.4 milion for 2016, from what I see from announcement is only RM8.7 million. Maybe they excluded certain one-off item.


If Hong Leong's figures stand, the buying interest for this stock will be high. Now hard to find a growing stock with less than PE ratio 10.

End.


Happy Investing.

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Thanks.

Friday, April 14, 2017

Why Peggy Should be nominated for mini Nobel Prize in Bursa Malaysia

Peggy wanted to know why pump and dump counters went up but many people still lose money in the long run and overall still lose. In order to understand, Peggy went to experience it.

After her experience by following tips by fomous bloggers, she found some major points.


Each individual has different behaviour so there will be different timing, cut loss, capital, risk, fear, etc. Therefore, many points are hard to discuss. Below are just some major points.



Confuse Short or Long Term.

Why people rush to buy immediately after seeing an article published by pump and dump operator?
Answer is fast money. This = short term.
When the price doesn't move up for them to make the desire profit, they hold, because the article is on long term. Oh oh. People are confused here. When people are confused, normally they lose money. If they want long term, there are plenty of long term stocks, why rush to buy this. Don't be confused. Furthermore, most of these articles just showing good points to attract people and not sure whether are good for long term.


Another point is.... Price already up one or few days earlier.

People will say don't worry if the price already up if we invest for long term and the future is more important than the past. But these people want fast money, they tend to lose out because as the name called, pump and dump, the price already pumped up, and when many people rush to buy, pump up again, and in the end the buying price is very very high. Inflated price. Pumped up price. Premium price, or whatever name. Big disadvatage here for short term people. If some say don't worry if price already up, buy for future, you see, again people are confused with fast money and long term.



Another point.... Percentage Gain.

The percentage gain make from so called tips are much lower. Imaging if we buy a long term stock, recommended by some genuine analysts or bloggers, at RM1.00, the share price continue to go up, until it reaches RM2.00, first we have plenty of time to buy around RM1.00, or RM1.05 if a bit late or too early. Then sell at RM2.10, RM1.80 or RM1.90, plenty of time if we feel that the price has exceeded the potential. Still have time to eat a pao and have some coffee to ponder whether to sell. Or even go to Australia for a week, plenty of time to think. Easily can make 20% 30% 50% 100% or more.

But if we buy based on the tips, we have to rush to buy. Sell? WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN TO SELL. If we use our normally sell decision making process, hold as long as got potential, then we are not for fast money. See you, we are confused again. If we want to sell fast to make fast money, when to sell?

Buy RM0.30, up until RM0.32, sell? RM0.34, sell? Drop back to RM0.28, sell? RM0.50, sell?

If we hold, are we trading long term? If we sell at RM0.34, more than 10% return, the stock goes up to RM0.50, we feel that the blogger is very good, next time hold longer. We always use the highest price to judge a blogger. Wow, recommeded at RM0.30, went up as high as RM0.50. But who can sell at RM0.50? Who know RM0.50 will be the highest.


Because of these difficulties, sometimes make profit, sometimes lose, people tend to invest smaller amount. Smaller amount can't really make much. Those who have made big gain, invest big again and incur big loss. Ended up nothing.


Why must we invest in smaller amount when follow tips? If sometimes gain, sometimes lose, net still having good gain, why must we invest in smaller amount? Because deep in our heart we know this kind of investment following tips are risky, end of the day we may lose.



From the experience, it seems not so easy to make fast money following tips share by bloggers.


Price already up (pumped up), volumn few days ago already up maybe someone waiting to sell , confuse whether short or long term, investment amount whether go big or small also we are not sure, not sure when to sell. % gain also low, don't know how to sell at highest because never know. We judge people by comparing the highest price with the recommended price. All these cause making money from tips very difficult.


However, if those who are making good money after many rounds of following tips, share with us how.


Those who sometimes make, sometimes lose, make 5%, lose 20%, confuse, gain from RM5k capital but lose when invested RM10k, quickly re-examine.


I know for sure some will make very hugh gain.


Recommeded stock A. Up a bit then down a bit. So some people make a bit some lose a bit.

Recommeded stock B. Up a bit then drop a lot. So some make a bit some lose a bit some lose a lot. Different people buying and selling at different price.
Recommened stock C. Up a lot. Some sold early make a bit. Some hold and make huge gain.

Out of so many people follow, some really make a lot. But only a few. Can we be so fortunate among the few?



======

Two Australian scientists, Robin Warren and Barry Marshall were awarded Nobel prize for physiology and medicine for their "unexpected" discovery that has saved millions of people from the pain of stomach ulcers.

Dr Barry Marshall succeeded in cultivating the bacterium, which became known as helicobacter pylori. To emphasise their point, in 1985, Dr Marshall deliberately infected himself with the helicobacter pylori bacterium to prove it caused acute gastric illness.


======


To show erection not just emotion, but can be physical, in 1983 Sir Giles Skey Brindley [Brindley had] injected himself with papaverine in his hotel room before coming to give the lecture, and deliberately wore loose clothes (hence the track-suit) to make it possible to exhibit the results. He stepped around the podium, and pulled his loose pants tight up around his genitalia in an attempt to demonstrate his erection.


======


From 2016 to 2017, Peggy went to real experiment in order to find out why majority of people keep losing money following famous bloggers.





Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Notion- Keep Boiling

Today a quick post because the warrant is going to be suspended from trading immediately.

Notion share price RM1.16

Why Notion?
Recommended Buy by Kenanga (Notion VTec - Expansion at Boiling Point) with target price of RM1.58, 36% upside. Look at the words "Boiling Point". I hope analysts will not use exaggerate words loosely and hope they really mean it. In July 2015 that was how I found OCK Group - Making The Next (Big) Leap by RHB. You saw the words Big? The word Leap? Up 100% after about one year.

See what the management said.
1) The demand for Auto EBS plungers will grow 30% Year-over-Year (YoY) in 2017 and again in 2018 and a new hard anodising line has been successfully installed and 50 new auto-lathe CNCs catering for the growth are being installed over Jan to May 2017 period.
2)The new Johor rented factories in Gelang Patah was set up in late 2016 to target new businesses and with a new energetic team we expect new business from a few new customers in the fasteners and engineered products, electrical consumer goods and EMS sector.
3)The Board is optimistic of more growth and earnings in the coming quarters.
4)With all our new planned projects, I am cautiously confident that for FY2017, our Group is expected to be on a much stronger
footing and will continue to be in the positive territory.

At least got some dividend and yield is about 1%, projected to grow.


Concerns?

For those who are concerned about price up already, Notion share price already up 200% from Nov 2016.
But further back, it was RM3.50 in March 2010 and keep dropping 37% to RM2.20 until April 2014. Then ex for warrant and bonus became RM1.25. Now also RM1.16, not much change from 3 years ago RM1.25.

Why the price was so low then? See what RHB said in January 2017 report, they said ........... Light at the end of the tunnel. Notion VTEC (Notion) was hit by a series of unfortunate events over the last five years, ie a major flood at its Thailand facility in 2012, a fire accident in its Klang production plant in 2013, losses from non-core investments in 2014, and losses suffered from its currency-related derivatives exposure in 2015 and 2016. All these are set to come to an end as it has managed to recover due to insurance claims and clean-up of its books by writing off non-core investments, as well as settling all its derivatives exposure.

Warrant is expiring, and some people may sell Notion and buy warrant to arbitrage to make few %. This will provide some pressure to the share price.

PE Ratio is 35x, very high. Agree. Part of the reason was due to provision of differed tax earlier.

Notion may not achieve the growth as per forecast. PE ratio so high, if no growth, it may not provide support to the share price.



Warrant.
Look at the warrant at RM0.125, exercise price RM1.00. Date & Time of Suspension : 13/04/2017 09:00 AM. Expiry date 02/05/2017.

For those with experience, what can we do?
Those with experience who are holding Notion, may sell Notion eg RM1.15 and buy Warrant RM0.09+RM1.00 to convert. Gain(or difference) is RM0.06.
100,000 shares = RM6000 excluding brokerage cost and other small cost.

Those with experience who already wish to buy Notion, may buy warrant and convert, rather than directly buying Notion stock.

The gap was RM0.06 to RM0.08 but now the gap is getting smaller. Based on closing, the gap is only RM0.025.

Only those with experience, I repeat that, because last day of trading is 12/04/2017 and maturity is 02/05/2017. Make one mistake, 100% total loss. Please consult your remisier/dealer even for those who are have experience.

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Cheers.

About Me

Dollar Cost Averaging and PEGGY Method. Sharing info on cheap (low PE) company with high growth, low Gearing or Net Cash and High Dividend Yield.

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